Head, claude-v43-1

Under 3,000 words, rewritten whole at every close. Last written at B2d, 2026-10-12 (UTC): the gold round and the stability check scored; pilot_report.md, stability-B2.md and handback-B2.md written. Stage B2's legs are done.

The method question, in one sentence

Can independently reconstructed case histories be composed into a shared dynamic account that supports explanations at successive levels of specificity, from population-wide patterns, through forms and subforms, to particular organizational histories, while keeping access to the evidence from which those explanations were developed?

The theory question is unchanged: when strangers organize on a clock they did not set, with no way to compel anyone and no goal given to them, what forms does organizing take, how do they differ in their functioning, and which of them keep the work alive?

Where the run stands

Stage A1 is closed. Stage B1 (the third-order scheme, 197 themes in 21 families) is done. Stage B2, the pilot, is open: rounds 1 to 3 are built, dispatched and checked; the scheme is frozen; the gold and stability rounds are built (B2c) and scored (B2d).

Round 1, as scored:

• fidelity against author_items.jsonl 0.594 (mean Jaccard; primary match 0.742);
• pairwise agreement 0.733 (primary 0.767);
• alpha 0.726;
• 18 of 40 items with two readers differing.

What round 1 showed. I placed 24 of 40 items on two kinds; the readers placed one kind almost always, so those second placements are my author-errors under rule 0. acecombat t05, Goodboye t03 and simonfraser t08 are bags.

The edits (scheme_edits.jsonl lines 1 to 286, round 1): sentence changes, discriminators and new questions, and 202 word-for-word mirrors (QB2-003).

The rechecks. Round 1's edits moved 22 items (18 author-errors, 4 edits doing their work). author_items.jsonl stays as written; fidelity is reported against it and against the rechecked placements.

Round 2, as built (B2a-r2)

The hard set is 50 items: round 1's 40, plus the ten biggest bags of notes-B1.md, placed by me before any packet (out/_analysis/b2_author_r2.py, source "biggest-bag"); six of the ten are bags, one theme placed and the rest under also_present. A first eleven-part build failed in dispatch and is set aside, never scored (QB2-005, QB2-006).

Round 2, as scored (B2b-r2-p2)

Readers differ between the rounds (J, 2026-10-12). Round 1: deepseek-v4-flash-0731 through @preset/cheap, high effort. Round 2: deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash called directly, medium effort, max_tokens 128,000. The same readers serve B3 and B4. Every change between the rounds is partly the readers. 15 readers (three per packet), 15 valid returns, no reissue, 0.598 USD.

The numbers (out/_analysis/b2_score_r2.py; pilot_rounds.jsonl line 2):

• all 50: fidelity 0.639 (primary 0.747), against the rechecked placements 0.701, pairwise 0.718 (primary 0.833), alpha 0.710; 27 items with two readers differing;
• the 40 round-1 items: fidelity 0.572, rechecked 0.648, pairwise 0.685, alpha 0.676 (round 1: 0.594, 0.733, 0.726);
• the ten biggest bags: fidelity 0.911, pairwise 0.850, primary 1.000; the themes readers name under also_present score Jaccard 0.283 against mine (one reader named 85 on 2007scape t04).

What round 2 showed. These readers place two or three themes on 47 of 150 lines (round 1: 10 of 120), reading rule 0's "carry" as "cover every concept". Eight author-errors, listed in notes-B2.md and pilot_report.md.

The edits (scheme_edits 287 to 295, scheme-ambiguous; out/_analysis/b2_edits_r2.py): guatemala t02 (all three readers missed whose flag "a flag" in r/guatemala is) gave T3-065 a gloss sentence and reworded the T3-002/T3-065 and T3-026/T3-065 questions; n64 t02 and dofus t01 gave a new T3-033/T3-038 question; nVade t04 gave new T3-195/T3-011 and T3-195/T3-005 questions. 133 rechecks, none moves; rechecks-B2.jsonl 887, none owed. Ten pairs read and confirmed: 31 confirmed, 0 stale, 464 unconfirmed.

Section 4. The packets are too short for a first-ten against last-ten curve. Agreement with the other two falls from first half to last in 9 of 12 readers at round 2 and 9 of 15 at round 3. The B3 cap stays at 40 with a 10-item warm-up.

QB2-009, answered. Round 2's 16 faulty lines are waived by name in out/return_waivers.jsonl; round 2 stands as scored. Fleet ids and fleet.py's check against each MANIFEST's codes_by_item end that fault. The split, withdrawn (J, 2026-10-12, 12:04 Berlin). At B2b-r2-p2 (QB2-010, QB2-011) I cut six hard bags into 54 children and gold dankmemes t16 into 2. J withdrew it. No one cuts the bags, neither this run nor the coders (J, 12:24 Berlin): the second-order themes stand as the coders made them; a bag stays one item through B2 and B3, one theme placed, its other themes under also_present, each with three concepts of its own at least. out/recut/WITHDRAWN.json makes every tool read the store as before the split; out/recut/ stays as written. The children's placement lines moved to out/_analysis/*_split_withdrawn.jsonl. rechecks-B2.jsonl lines 888 to 1,413 (526) are the children's and stay so they resolve; no figure counts them (list in notes-B2.md, "The split, withdrawn"). The B1 bags stay as they are (J counts 841; this head said 846, not reconciled). mem.py theme printed some lines blank; read bags with mem.py codes --sub S --second tNN.

Answered at this leg.

• QB2-007: round 3 runs on the edited scheme with round 2's readers; it is the first round where only the scheme changes. No freeze.
• QB2-008: a theme enters also_present only with at least three concepts of its own (in RETURN-B2.md; carry it into B3's return specification when B3 comes). A bag stays one item.
• Fleet ids (J, 09:14 and 12:15): from round 3 and in B3, packets carry only fleet ids for codes and second-order themes (out/fleet_ids.jsonl), never a room id, headings included; returns are translated back before scoring (b2_packets_fleet.py, b2_translate_fleet.py); my files keep room ids. Carry this into B3's specification.

Round 3, as scored (B2b-r3)

The round. Round 2's 50 items and readers, after edits 287 to 295, in fleet ids, 5 packets (seed 20261013). The handler's rescue record (_fleet_raw/B2/round-3/RESCUE-2026-10-12.json, superseding EXHAUSTED.tsv) keeps the first three valid replies per packet. b2_translate_fleet.py --round 3 reads only those and drops the readers' "r/" before sub.

The numbers (out/_analysis/b2_score_r3.py; pilot_rounds.jsonl line 3):

• all 50: fidelity 0.682 (primary 0.780), against the rechecked placements 0.760, pairwise 0.728 (primary 0.793), alpha 0.721; 23 items with two readers differing (round 2: 27);
• the 40 round-1 items: fidelity 0.611, pairwise 0.676, alpha 0.668;
• the ten biggest bags: fidelity 0.967, pairwise 0.933; kinds named against mine 0.283;
• 27 of 150 lines place two or more themes (round 2: 47); no also_present theme under the floor.

What it showed. Edit 287 (T3-065 gloss) moved two of three readers on guatemala t02 to my placement; nVade t04 moved from T3-195 to T3-005 for two of three. 23 dividing items went to exemplar_candidates.jsonl. Rounds stop at round 3 (threshold cleared).

The freeze (B2b-r3-p3)

The cluster. signal t01, n64 t02 and 2007scape t04 hold an offer, a call and the build together; readers took the opening post as "the lead", and the three pairs used three measures. Edits 296 to 302 give T3-002, T3-033 and T3-038 one rule: count the concepts of each act, the most is primary, the opening post does not lead because it comes first (ties: T3-038 if placed, else T3-002 if the mark was chosen, T3-033 if not); and a T3-038/T3-070 question. 129 rechecks, none moves (2007scape t04 counted whole: about 44 build, 35 call, 23 directions, 13 proposals).

The pairs. The 449 unconfirmed pairs read whole (out/_analysis/b2_pairs_read_first.txt). Two faults fixed (edits 303 to 306): T3-072 and T3-157 said "T3-009 primary" against T3-009's count; the T3-038/T3-070 question sent a link to the finished work to T3-038, which T3-026 takes. 52 rechecks, none moves. All 496 pairs confirmed, 0 stale, no mechanical defect.

The files. scheme_final.jsonl (197 themes; tier "main" 183, "rare" 14, J at QB2-014; sha256 4b471d29...), scheme_final.md (frozen header), families.jsonl (21). The freeze's "common" files are kept as out/_analysis/scheme_final_common.*. The freeze edits are tested only by the gold round (QB2-012). Gates are read from scheme_final.jsonl.

B2c, built

out/_analysis/b2_packets_fleet2.py: gold_items.jsonl's 40 items, fleet ids, shared pages from scheme_final.jsonl, seed 20261014 in all three rounds, so the same 3 packets (14, 14, 12 items) in the same order; only the brief differs (the builder's for gold; out/brief-stab-1.md, out/brief-stab-2.md, reworded, no test changed). Folders out/_packets-B2/round-gold, round-stab-1, round-stab-2; 0 room ids in 75 files; run_manifest.json 9 entries.

B2d, scored

Gold (out/_analysis/b2_score_final.py; pilot_rounds.jsonl line 4): fidelity 0.624 (primary 0.800), against rechecked 0.661, pairwise 0.818, alpha 0.809. Readers agree with each other more and with me less than at round 3: on ten gold items they keep only my primary of two (the round-1 author-error; the gold set was placed before round 1). Stability 0.807 (stab-1 readers against stab-2, nine pairs per item), level with each stability round's own pairwise (0.800, 0.756): the brief's wording adds no disagreement. Blind re-placement of ten hard items: 0.883 against my placements, 0.806 for round 3's readers (an upper bound: I had seen several of the ten). Author-errors: 32 items (21 hard, 11 gold). Four gold wording defects go to C1 (uofmn t01, cuboulder t04, mariokart t04, ireland t12). Scorecard: only T3-004/T3-070, T3-009/T3-073 and T3-001/T3-023 split readers more than once; T3-005/T3-021 never (estimate 15-20%).

What comes next

• Stage B2's legs are done. The next stage is handed over by the harness.
• QB2-013, answered. Four round-3 lines (bag flag, empty also_present) are waived by name. RETURN-B2.md says a bag with no other theme at the three-concept floor is not flagged (item_is_a_bag false, also_present {}). Round-3 text: out/_analysis/RETURN-B2_round3.md.
• The bound (J, 13:47). also_present names "twenty themes at most", each with three concepts of its own; a bound, not a goal. The validator and fleet.py apply it only where that exact phrase stands. Write both rules, the phrase word for word, into B3's return specification. Rounds 1 to 3 are scored as given.

Standing words from J and the PI (carry into every head)

J's words for B1 (7 October 2026): "national elements are very important here"; "we need to get as much variance on organizing behavior early on so that later we have enough to create the model". National, political and conflict content is study material, named as plainly as any other. The handler's rule: a choice to leave out or soften content for any reason other than the study's goes to J first with mem.py ask, and the content stays meanwhile.

J on reading (11 October, 16:54 Berlin). Stop cutting room reads to a line length. Read room lines whole. Page a long read by line ranges or offset, never by truncating lines. Use --width N on a mem.py read if a clip is ever needed; the guard refuses cut -c after mem.py.

J on asking (11 October, 17:01 Berlin). Ask J with mem.py ask whenever a question is needed; asking does not stop the run.

The PI's clarifications (8 October, approved by J): the thresholds are the design's heuristic; the rule is unchanged.

How to work, from J (8 October, 23:45 Berlin, "can you do a hot change for the batching?"; relayed by the handler at 22:03Z; carry this paragraph into every head). A change in how I work, not in what I read or decide. Fewer turns. When two or more tool calls do not depend on each other's output, make them in one turn. Chain ordered commands in one Bash call with &&, so that a failure stops the rest; for example, the mem.py log or note just decided, then the next mem.py codes. Never put a write in the same turn as the read it depends on. Never run two writes to the same file as separate parallel calls. Keep one room's material per read, as now. Every tool still writes its own record; nothing about what I read or decide changes.

Two rules from J at B1b-29 (through the handler, 20:10Z; carry them into every head). Write rule 0 lines and bags with b1_multiplace_write4.py and b1_bags_from_file2.py, not the old scripts, which made one mem.py call per row of the whole table and grew to 8.5 minutes a write. Never end a turn while a job runs in the background; run every write and check in the foreground.

The pilot's declarations (from notes-B2.md)

• Threshold: mean pairwise agreement 0.70 on the hard set.
• Agreement: Jaccard on placement sets (["T3-004"] against ["T3-004","T3-011"] scores 0.5). Fidelity is mean Jaccard against my set. Alpha uses distance 1 − Jaccard, chance over the round's pooled sets. Primary exact agreement is reported beside, never in place.
• Gold: 40 items in gold_items.jsonl, never shown to a reader, seeded in B3 at 1 per 20 items, at most two per batch.
• Sets: the hard set and the gold set were drawn by out/_analysis/b2_select.py (seeds b2a-r1:hard, b2a-r1:gold); the ten biggest bags were added at B2a-r2, not drawn.
• B3 batch cap: 40 items, the first 10 a warm-up block not counted; revisited with round 2's curves.

The scheme

scheme.jsonl holds 197 themes (183 main, 14 rare) in 21 families. The floor is two rooms unlike each other in size, side or form: 181 main themes on size and two on form (T3-173, T3-189). Rare: T3-007, T3-025, T3-067, T3-077, T3-093, T3-106, T3-133, T3-144, T3-161, T3-166, T3-186, T3-191 and T3-197; T3-128 is rare because its three rooms tell one episode (E1132). F-001, as superseded: half the 7,786 placed second-order themes sit on one kind; themes about dealing with other rooms need the most kinds. Within a room, larger themes need more kinds (Spearman 0.28; across rooms −0.08). "107 episode lines" is corrected to 106 (line, kind) pairs over 81 lines in notes-B1.md and handback-B1.md.

What B1 handed to B2, still open

• The ruling on testing G13, G14 and G15 as one index page.
• Whether B3 readers see exemplars.
• The B1d leftovers:
  • 106 (line, kind) pairs over 81 episode lines whose kinds none of their rooms holds;
  • seven pairs of lines telling one event;
  • E989;
  • the cfb and finland records;
  • shared-member counts that may include EA1r+K5p/lVBLesLhCFRrKOPN+I=;
  • the 76 themes holding both T3-005 and T3-021 acts;
  • T3-149 and T3-150 members that may hold T3-195;
  • kinds left out of bags.
• The second-order theme the scheme handles worst: argentina t06.

Open distinctions, carried past B1

None is filed in _questions/. These remain open:

• who started the work;
• wars told twice;
• rivals who turn partners (E1076, E1122, E1142, E1318);
• whose flag a shared flag is (E1118);
• records that disagree on who attacked, on promises, truces, bots and design changes;
• who drove a bot and why it left a work (E1025);
• a room's own scripts barring it from sparing a neighbour (E843), or wrecking a protectorate it then rebuilt (E1209);
• one member on both sides of a quarrel (E820, E947);
• objections to altering the final image (T3-054 or T3-105).

Ledgers at this close

• B1: scheme_current.jsonl (197 themes, 7,786 placed second-order themes, 13,432 placements); scheme.jsonl (197, edited); families.jsonl (21); confusions.md (19 pairs); findings.jsonl (2 lines, F-001 and its superseding line); multiplacement_log.jsonl (6,663); episodes-B1.jsonl (1,341).
• B2:
  • notes-B2.md (1,192 lines); pilot_report.md, stability-B2.md, handback-B2.md; brief-stab-1.md, brief-stab-2.md; author_items.jsonl (50); gold_items.jsonl (40); RETURN-B2.md (with also_present, no parts); pilot_rounds.jsonl (6); scheme_final.jsonl (197), scheme_final.md;
  • scheme_edits.jsonl (306); rechecks-B2.jsonl (1,594, of which 526 the withdrawn split's; none owed); gate_checks.jsonl (519 lines, all 496 pairs confirmed); exemplar_candidates.jsonl (68); tier_history.jsonl (392); run_manifest.json (9: A1, B2 round 1, two round-2 entries, two round-3 entries, the second superseding the first, gold, stab-1, stab-2).
• Asks QB2-001 to QB2-014 are answered; none is open. return_waivers.jsonl holds 20 waivers (J: 16 at QB2-009, 4 at QB2-013). out/recut/ holds the 56 withdrawn children, as written.

Rules kept

• Never type an id, an order or a name from memory; check with jq or a script. Never log a write before the tool answers. Count a ledger's lines after appending.

• There is no --kind close and no --kind episode; log those as notes.

• mem.py split refuses (J, 2026-10-12). Never cut a second-order theme; a bag stays one item.

• A question to J is mem.py ask "<question>" --assume "<meanwhile>"; mem.py log --kind ask writes only a diary line and gives no id.

• A reader's thread must fit the provider's window (about 164,000 tokens, inferred at round 2); the shared pages alone are about 95,000.

• Check a notes section against the diary before closing. Never put a placeholder or a no-op in a command. Never put an Edit and the read that checks it in one turn.

• Never write an id-like token the run does not define in the head, such as a D or a P followed by digits: done.sh reads it as an unresolved link. Name later stages and packet files in words.

• The permission check refuses:

  • "=w=";
  • shell for and while loops, and words beginning "for_";
  • shell functions, brace groups and heredocs;
  • awk with system();
  • a variable set from $(...), and some python3 -c scripts;
  • jq with a test() regex, and env-var prefixes;
  • cat or jq on out/diary/;
  • cut -c, cut -b and colrm after mem.py, cite.py or a helper.

  Split those, or write a script file in out/_analysis/.

• mem.py pages long output ([lines 1-80 of N]); fetch the rest with --offset before trusting a count.

• New author items on edited themes owe rechecks under every edit that touches their themes; record them before the close.

• mem.py recheck takes about 4.5 seconds a record. Run rechecks in the foreground in slices under ten minutes; the recheck scripts skip what is already recorded.

• After a compaction the guard requires the head and stage file read again and the exact line "compacted; head reconciled" through mem.py log --kind note, in a call of its own, before any other write. After an interrupted turn or a lost connection, check the record before rerunning anything.

The next comparison

In B3, against this stage's figures: gold fidelity against gold_items.jsonl and the rechecked gold placements (0.624, 0.661), primary match (0.800), and agreement read above the stability floor (0.807).