out/model.md
Saved at C5.C5c-13: readers check. This reading copy substitutes participant identifiers in saved text; it is not a new interview response. Reading Markdown.
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Source commit: 0e33f428188b, 2026-10-15T16:47:06+02:00. Saved-state date: 2026-10-15T14:46:32Z. Catalogue close receipt Commit date and saved-state date are distinct.
Historical account, 15 October 2026. D3 revised R01 and P05, bounded A21 and added fifteen candidates. The 24 October D3c head says the C5 account has not yet been rewritten for those amendments. Read the D3 handback alongside this earlier account. D3 handback, 24 October.
The run later retold the model and audited its limits. Read the final D6 account and E1/E2 audits for the completed run. Completed v43 results.
Original GitHub file. Original SHA-256: 255afe6e2fdf54f624584201de5d82e3b054a1f62e071c4b2b5bfdfeac681757. Reading-copy SHA-256: 255afe6e2fdf54f624584201de5d82e3b054a1f62e071c4b2b5bfdfeac681757.
The model, stage C2, pass 1 (C2a-01)
The model is typed: elements in model/elements.jsonl,
arrows in model/arrows.jsonl, every change in
model/history.jsonl, loops in
model/loops.jsonl (empty at pass 1). Counts come from
assignments_final.jsonl through
out/_analysis/c2_arrow_evidence.py, whose outputs are
out/_analysis/c2_arrow_evidence-p1a.txt,
-p1b.txt and -p1c.txt. The apparatus tables
are printed by out/_analysis/c2_model_tables.py, the
dimension masses by c2_dim_mass.py, and the unused themes
by c2_unused_t3.py.
The model relates presences and their order in time, never amounts. No coder wrote down a covariation between degrees, so no arrow is drawn between degrees.
What the model says, in prose
The contract asks the model for four things: how a scattered readership becomes able to act and how it settles what to act on; what sends a group back to that beginning; what brought organizing about when it came, and what followed; and what is left behind. Pass 1's model answers them with a spine, a fork between rooms, and a close.
How a scattered readership becomes able to act. A member proposes a mark or begins it (R01). Calls gather around the start [A02], and calls bring the hands that build [A01]. The cheapest answer to a call is a one-line enrolment, "On it.", which commits a member and asks for nothing back [A12]. Where a member placed first, the call follows the first build and recruits to a mark already begun (A01's bound).
How it settles what to act on. The room settles what its mark will show (P02). Inside a reply thread, a template settles a design under argument [A11]. Across rooms the first template is as likely to come before design talk as after it. The half-built mark itself tells the next placer what is missing (P03). Decided order, such as a leader, a vote or an oath, is rare (C01; finding F-006).
What brought organizing about when it came, and what followed. Organizing came when someone started and others answered [A02] [A01]. Upkeep followed: once a mark stands, keeping it becomes the work [A03]. Upkeep brings the room up against the neighbours whose pixels erode it, and the room talks with them [A04]. A settled border gives members a line they keep [A05], though most sparing is tacit and comes before any talk (A05's bound). Upkeep under attack outruns one pixel per interval, and members turn to scripts and spare accounts [A06] (finding F-005). Why organizing came when it did is the part the model holds least. The April Fools frame (K01) filled some rooms for a day or more before any canvas talk, and no arrow from it has been tested.
What sends a group back to the beginning. A loss. A
room that judges it has too few hands stops fighting for its spot and
moves [A10]. The move returns it to choosing a spot more than to
recruiting. After a relocation, calls and build reports come less often
than a shuffle of the room's own concepts would make them (finding
F-002). Four of the twenty pass 1 story rooms, day9 among them, still
called members in again after a loss, so this is a corpus rate and an
open question (_questions/relocation-renewed-calls.md).
day9 is the case of the move. Its border agreement broke at h48. Members
chose to move at h49.7, made it official at h50.7, and finished the new
work at h53.1 (finding F-003).
What is left behind. A finished mark is celebrated together [A07]. What is celebrated is recorded [A08]. What is recorded is carried on into banners, later canvases and lasting groups [A09] (finding F-004). Placement stops at hour 73. After it, a room can only celebrate, record and carry on.
Conditions. The April Fools frame (K01) and doubt about numbers (K02) are conditions. Membership carried in from outside the canvas (the nation, the fandom, the colour tribe) is in the structure as Collective identity and not in the model. Only K02 carries a grounded arrow at pass 1.
The elements
The next table lists the 20 elements with their kind, statement, tier, dimension and range.
| id | kind | statement | tier | dimension | range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P01 | process | Members call the room's own members, and kindred subs, to come and place for a work: to start it, build it, finish it or hold it. | T4-005 | D01 | from one unanswered post asking who will help to a run of calls, cheering and a set time for placing together |
| P02 | process | The room settles what its mark will show of it: a member proposes a picture, the room argues its design, signs it or leaves it unsigned, or claims a mark others made. | T4-006 | D02 | from a single member's unanswered proposal to a design argued over days and redone |
| P03 | process | Members build the mark and report its state, and the state of the canvas itself tells the next placer what is missing: progress, extension, personal pieces on a shared mark. | T4-007 | D02 | from one report that the logo is half done to a mark grown into several pieces over two days |
| P04 | process | Members circulate a template or coordinates that fix the output pixel by pixel, ask for them, and hold strays to them. | T4-008 | D02 | from one anchor coordinate to an official template enforced against versions |
| P05 | process | Members keep the placed work against erosion: they watch it, repair changed pixels, rally to defend it under attack, cover the night, harden its shape and put upkeep before growth. | T4-013 | D03 | from one member fixing stray pixels to shifts, scripts and calls to defend over many hours |
| P06 | process | Members work out who changed their work and why: they trace placers and rooms, find friendly fire or their own mistake, blame officers, or disown placers acting in their name. | T4-019 | D03 | from one question who keeps adding a line to a dossier on a rival's bots |
| P07 | process | Rooms spare their neighbours' work without a written agreement, rein in their own attackers, apologise for damage and appeal to attackers to stop. | T4-015 | D04 | from one member refusing to cover a neighbour to a room restoring a work it had damaged |
| P08 | process | Rooms settle borders, truces and deals with neighbours by talk, through envoys, hold each other to them and dispute them. | T4-016 | D04 | from a one-line border agreed in a thread to treaties across languages kept and broken over a day |
| P09 | process | Rooms attack others' work by the recurring moves the canvas affords: erasing, encroaching, converting a sign, raiding on a streamer's call, planting a script, griefing for fun. | T4-020 | D04 | from one member's call to deface a rival to a coordinated raid |
| P10 | process | After the work is erased or overrun, the room weighs fighting for the spot against moving, and moves: a new spot, a smaller version, a fresh start. | T3-022, T3-124 | D04 | from a lone member asking where to rebuild to a room relocating together within two hours |
| P11 | process | When a work is up, the room marks it: announces it, celebrates it, credits makers and helpers, reports members' own parts and says what working with strangers meant. | T4-026 | D07 | from one 'We did it!' post to threads of credit and reflection at the close |
| P12 | process | The room records what happened to its work: screenshots and timelapses, reports of its fate, mourning, imagined art, atlas entries, the end marked. | T4-027 | D07 | from one screenshot request to a full account of the week |
| P13 | process | At the close the room decides what of its temporary effort to keep: a later canvas, a new purpose for its canvas sub, the mark in its banner, ties with other rooms, the work remade elsewhere. | T4-028 | D07 | from a wish to do better next year to a canvas-born collective carried into a lasting group |
| P14 | process | Members multiply their hands beyond the rate limit with scripts, bots and extra accounts, and the room governs these machine hands. | T4-009 | D02 | from one member running spare accounts to a shared bot holding several rooms' works |
| P15 | process | A member answers a call or proposal in one line that joins, assents, reports a part done or thanks, and the line asks for nothing back. | FP-01 | none (form pass) | from 'On it.' to 'Did my part.' |
| K01 | condition | The host sub is keyed as play for April Fools: fakes, takeovers and the one-day licence fill the room, and every claim in it, a call to the canvas included, may be a joke. | T4-001 | D06 | from one fake post in an ordinary sub to a sub given over to parody for a day and a half |
| K02 | condition | The room judges that it has too few hands or too little room for the work it wants: doubt, a canvas judged too full, a work judged absent or outclassed. | T4-012 | D01 | from one member saying there are not enough people to defenders told to give up |
| C01 | claim | Rooms aligned their placers mostly without deciding how they were organized: a decided element of order (a leader, a vote, an oath, a sanction, a division of the work) appears in few rooms, and the question who is in charge is almost never asked. | T4-011, FP-08 | D02 | from rooms that say they wing it to canvas-born factions holding elections |
| R01 | role | The starter: a member who proposes the mark, maps it or begins placing it, and whom others then join. | T3-033, T3-092 | D02 | from a member who only asks to a member who maps and places alone first |
| R02 | role | The envoy: a member who acts for a room toward another room, carrying a proposal between threads or chats. | T3-194 | D04 | from a member calling themself a diplomat once to a standing representative in a shared council |
Every element has a range. 17 of the 20 are named for what they do. Three (K01, K02, C01) are named for a state or a pattern. Fewer than a third are named for what they are about, so the model is not a lattice.
Why 20. The four things and the concept need 17 elements:
- becoming able to act: R01, P01 and P15;
- settling what to act on: P02, P03, P04 and C01;
- what brought organizing about and what followed: P05, P07, P08, P14 and K01;
- what sends a room back: K02 and P10;
- what is left behind: P11, P12 and P13.
The other three (P06 attribution, P09 attack, R02 the envoy) carry the hinge from Attribution to Live and let live or Repertoire of contention, which the interview asked the model to test. That hinge was tested and not grounded (below). The three elements stay without arrows because the within-case rooms need them: ubc refused to retaliate against a neighbour, and day9 named a diplomat.
The arrows
The next table lists the 12 arrows in the model. For each it gives the kind, the strength, the rooms where the connection statement holds out of those carrying both elements, the permutation null (500 shuffles of labels within each room, seed 20261014), the holds on the early and late sides of the onset contrast, and whether the base rate is beaten.
| id | from -> to | kind | strength | rooms: holds of both (share) | null mean (p95) | early / late holds | base rate beaten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A01 | P01 -> P03 | order | strong | 137 of 190 (0.721) | 0.467 (0.521) | 35 of 47 / 3 of 5 | true |
| A02 | R01 -> P01 | order | fair | 64 of 89 (0.719) | 0.473 (0.539) | 21 of 34 / 2 of 2 | true |
| A03 | P03 -> P05 | order | strong | 182 of 291 (0.625) | 0.392 (0.436) | 43 of 69 / 6 of 8 | true |
| A04 | P05 -> P08 | order | fair | 235 of 401 (0.586) | 0.501 (0.539) | 56 of 93 / 6 of 15 | true |
| A05 | P08 -> P07 | order | thin | 106 of 158 (0.671) | 0.600 (0.658) | 25 of 40 / 4 of 4 | true |
| A06 | P05 -> P14 | order | strong | 160 of 203 (0.788) | 0.603 (0.655) | 41 of 50 / 1 of 3 | true |
| A07 | P03 -> P11 | order | strong | 182 of 282 (0.645) | 0.433 (0.475) | 38 of 65 / 5 of 9 | true |
| A08 | P11 -> P12 | order | strong | 225 of 289 (0.779) | 0.565 (0.609) | 61 of 77 / 8 of 15 | true |
| A09 | P12 -> P13 | order | fair | 113 of 145 (0.779) | 0.563 (0.628) | 38 of 47 / 1 of 3 | true |
| A10 | K02 -> P10 | order | thin | 11 of 21 (0.524) | 0.298 (0.429) | 2 of 4 / 1 of 1 | true |
| A11 | P02 -> P04 | transition | thin | 85 of 153 (0.556) | 0.557 (0.621) | 21 of 37 / 3 of 5 | false |
| A12 | P01 -> P15 | transition | thin | never counted (form pass) | - | - | null |
The connection statement, written before every
count: "in a room carrying both, the first concept of FROM
comes before the first concept of TO". It is a statement of order. The
null holds each room's coded turns and their hours fixed and shuffles
which element each turn belongs to. A relation that holds nearly
everywhere is not deleted by its base rate. A03 is in part constitutive,
since a work must stand before it can be kept, and its 109
counterexamples show it is not only that. Every arrow is grounded
codes-read: the concepts were read across rooms, and each
arrow rests on quotes and on at least one transition in one thread.
Each arrow, with its mechanism, the observation that would show it failed, its bound, the sampled rooms that failed, and its instances:
- A01, the call brings the hands that build (P01 to P03). Mechanism: a call brings members to the canvas who then start or extend the mark and say how far it has come. Fails if: in a room, build reports come only before any call, or calls are followed by no build report. Present: in 53 of 190 rooms. Bound: where a member has begun the mark before any call, the call follows the first build and recruits to a mark already started. Sampled and failing: xenoblade_chronicles (first build h25.04, first call h33.60). Transitions: 164 in 70 rooms. Instances: "Help us draw Metroid over at /r/place!" [metroid/c0001], answered one minute later by the location [metroid/c0002]; latin c0010 to c0011, two minutes.
- A02, a start gives the call something to gather around (R01 to P01). Mechanism: a member who proposes or begins a mark gives the room something to answer, and calls for hands gather around it. Fails if: calls come only before any proposal or start, or a proposal draws no call. Present: in 25 of 89 rooms. Bound: where the room calls before anyone proposes, the proposal answers the call. Sampled and failing: worldoftanks (first call h34.81, first start h72.33). Transitions: 59 in 27 rooms. Instances: "Let's draw sips from 'Spacemen' in r/place" [sips/c0026], answered four minutes later by "I'm in." [sips/c0027]; habs c0047 to c0048, 20 minutes.
- A03, a built mark becomes a mark to keep (P03 to P05). Mechanism: once a mark stands on a surface anyone can change, keeping it becomes the work. Fails if: upkeep comes only before any build report, or a reported build is never watched. Present: in 109 of 291 rooms. Bound: where the mark was found already placed by others, or a rival attacked before the room reported building, upkeep comes first. All four sampled rooms hold. Transitions: 214 in 85 rooms. Instances: "It's done!" [monsterhunter/c0082], answered one minute later by "time for upkeep now" [monsterhunter/c0083]; reddevils c0124 to c0125, two minutes.
- A04, keeping the mark brings the room to its neighbours (P05 to P08). Mechanism: keeping a mark against erosion brings the room up against the neighbours whose pixels erode it, and it turns to talk with them. Fails if: border talk comes only before any upkeep. Present: in 166 of 401 rooms. Bound: on the late side, rooms that came to a full canvas talk with neighbours first, asking for space before they have a mark to keep (6 of 15 hold). All four sampled rooms hold. Transitions: 293 in 129 rooms. Instance: "We're currently under attack. Seems like its coming from the mona lisa guys, I need help fellow swiss people!" [switzerland/c0044], answered in two minutes: "We have a peace treaty with the mona lisa guys and the rainbow." [switzerland/c0045].
- A05, a settled border is a line members keep (P08 to P07). Mechanism: a settled border gives members a line to keep, and they spare the neighbour's work by it. Fails if: sparing comes only before any talk. Present: in 52 of 158 rooms. Bound: sparing is often tacit and first; the arrow holds where restraint rests on a settled border. Sampled and failing: edmontonoilers (sparing at h13.33, border talk at h73.81) and totallynotrobots (h71.04 against h71.71). Thin: 0.671 against a null 95th percentile of 0.658. Transitions: 59 in 31 rooms. Instances: roosterteeth c0097 ("We already established with a guy from /r/halo that the border that collides with them will go under") answered by "That's some quality /r/place etiquette right there" [roosterteeth/c0098]; "We have an agreement with them, we won't mess with each other." [ubc/c0084].
- A06, scripts arrive under strain (P05 to P14). Mechanism: upkeep under attack outruns what one pixel per interval can hold, and members turn to scripts and spare accounts. Fails if: machine hands come only before any upkeep. Present: in 43 of 203 rooms. Bound: where a room scripted the building itself from the start. Sampled and failing: canucks (machine hands h29.32, upkeep h39.37). The reverse order (P14 to P05) was tested first and holds in 0.202 against a null mean of 0.375. Transitions: 117 in 53 rooms. Instances: "DEFEND THE FOX WITH EVERYTHING YOU HAVE." [foxes/c0061], answered in one minute by a console script; TheFarLeftSide c0384 to c0385; "I got three accounts going right now..." [ubc/c0090], two minutes after c0089.
- A07, a finished mark is celebrated together (P03 to P11). Mechanism: a mark reported done gives the room a finished thing to point at, and the room celebrates it together. Fails if: celebration comes only before any build report. Present: in 100 of 282 rooms. Bound: where the first mark was found already made by others, the room celebrates the find. All four sampled rooms hold. Transitions: 96 in 47 rooms. Instances: touhou c0090 to c0129; suomi c0097 to c0098, "Me teimme sen!".
- A08, what is celebrated is recorded (P11 to P12). Mechanism: celebrating the work together turns members toward keeping a record of it: the final image, the timelapse, the list of what changed. Fails if: records come only before any celebration. Present: in 64 of 289 rooms. Bound: on the late side the record often comes first, a screenshot of a work found rather than built (8 of 15 hold). All four sampled rooms hold. Transitions: 259 in 108 rooms. Instances: "Place 2017, we did it guys. Good work." [lakers/c0226], answered in one minute by an account of the border at the end [lakers/c0227]; titanfall c0211 to c0212.
- A09, the record is what passes on (P12 to P13). Mechanism: a record of the work gives the room something to carry. Fails if: carrying on comes only before any record. Present: in 32 of 145 rooms. Bound: where a room planned its next canvas or its banner while still building. Sampled and failing: texans (carrying on at h34.50, record at h73.21). Transitions: 26 in 13 rooms. Instances: "I cleaned up the final UIUC /r/place section. Thanks to everyone who helped out!" [uiuc/c0154], answered 46 minutes later by "Petition to add that image to the subreddit theme." [uiuc/c0155].
- A10, too few hands, so the room moves (K02 to P10). Mechanism: a room that judges it has too few hands to hold its spot stops fighting for it and moves. Fails if: a move comes with no doubt before it. Present: in 10 of 21 rooms. Bound: where a room moves early by choice rather than after a loss. Sampled and failing: anarcho_capitalism (move at h9.03, doubt at h32.91). Thin: 21 rooms, one transition. Instances: "Guess we're a little too small to make this work" [paranatural/c0020], answered in one minute by "We're in a new spot now." [paranatural/c0021]; "it looks like this is a losing battle. I'll help move it" [day9/c0023].
- A11, a template settles a design argued in a thread (P02 to P04). Mechanism: design talk in a thread is settled by someone posting a template that fixes it. Its order between rooms was tested and is at chance (0.556 against 0.557). The arrow is kept as a transition inside threads, with base_rate_beaten false. Sampled and failing: texas (template h5.87, design talk h23.45) and empiredidnothingwrong (h9.55 against h55.92). Transitions: 82 in 36 rooms. Instances: "Maybe make it 20x20? Or just a purple W?" [udub/c0008], answered in four minutes: "Will update template image and upload here." [udub/c0009]; wallstreetbets c0161 to c0162.
- A12, the cheapest answer to a call (P01 to P15). Mechanism: a call is answered at the lowest possible cost, one line that commits the member and asks for nothing back. Never counted: a form-pass finding travels on exemplars. Sampled: fivenightsatfreddys holds; teamcube not testable. Instances: "Help us build the lebanese flag! In the middle of the orange patch (10, 840)" [lebanon/c0026], answered 37 minutes later by "On it" [lebanon/c0027]; DestinyTheGame c0002 to c0008, "I'm in"; pcmasterrace c0904 to c0905, "On it".
Theorised arrows, and the model with and without them
No arrow rests on my reading alone. Two arrows do not rest on an order count that beats a shuffle, and they are listed apart as theorised:
- A11: its order across rooms is at chance, and it stands on transitions inside threads only.
- A12: never counted, on exemplars only.
Two more are counted and beat the null, but thinly: A05 (just above the null's 95th percentile) and A10 (21 rooms).
Without the two theorised arrows, the model loses two things. It can no longer say how a room settles a design under argument (A11), or why calls are cheap to answer (A12). Everything else stands.
Without the four thin arrows, the model is the spine A02, A01, A03, A04 and A06, and the close A07, A08 and A09. It still says how a room becomes able to act, what followed, and what it leaves behind. It loses two more things: why rooms with neighbours mostly do not fight (A05), and what sends a room back (A10). The second of the four things then has no answer in the model.
The model on the dimensions
The next table gives, per dimension, the mass of coded turns
answering coded turns across the dimension's boundary. It comes from
_views/transitions.tsv lifted through the placements by
out/_analysis/c2_dim_mass.py. Rooms are beside each count.
The last three columns drop every transition touching a double (a
second-order theme placed on two third-order themes). Of 56,071
transitions with both ends placed, 31,636 touch no double.
| dimension | in (rooms) | out (rooms) | internal (rooms) | in, no doubles | out, no doubles | internal, no doubles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D01 Critical mass | 3569 (415) | 5166 (387) | 3100 (420) | 696 (210) | 1076 (179) | 1647 (284) |
| D02 Coordination without command | 7572 (557) | 8192 (541) | 8686 (574) | 1510 (299) | 1685 (296) | 4362 (406) |
| D03 Maintenance | 5588 (486) | 4920 (459) | 3717 (463) | 1222 (242) | 1243 (212) | 1929 (283) |
| D04 Order without law | 9611 (588) | 6373 (522) | 10512 (601) | 2028 (348) | 1046 (277) | 4873 (450) |
| D05 Collective identity | 3017 (295) | 3389 (240) | 2904 (287) | 565 (162) | 643 (125) | 1496 (209) |
| D06 Host framing | 1938 (234) | 1309 (172) | 9930 (397) | 622 (135) | 226 (69) | 6839 (335) |
| D07 Imprinting | 3631 (490) | 5577 (479) | 5763 (547) | 672 (254) | 1396 (272) | 3175 (416) |
The next table states six arrows at the dimension level. Each has one arrow beneath it, which supplies the strongest instance. The last column is the transition mass from the first dimension to the second, from the same script.
| dimensions | arrow beneath | mechanism at the dimension level | fails if | strongest instance | mass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical mass to Coordination without command | A01 | hands gathered by a call are spent on the mark the room is aligning on | gathered hands produce no aligned work, or aligned work comes only before any gathering | metroid c0001 to c0002, 1 minute | 1,727 |
| Coordination without command to Critical mass | A02 | a coordinating role, the starter, gives the call something to gather around | calls come only before any start | sips c0026 to c0027, 4 minutes | 1,346 |
| Coordination without command to Maintenance | A03 | aligned work, once standing, becomes something to keep | upkeep comes only before any aligned work | monsterhunter c0082 to c0083, 1 minute | 1,684 |
| Maintenance to Order without law | A04 | keeping a work brings the room into the order between rooms | border talk comes only before any upkeep | switzerland c0044 to c0045, 2 minutes | 1,913 |
| Maintenance to Coordination without command | A06 | upkeep under strain changes how the room multiplies its hands | machine hands come only before any upkeep | ubc c0089 to c0090, 2 minutes | 1,432 |
| Coordination without command to Imprinting | A07 | aligned work, once finished, is celebrated | celebration comes only before any finished work | suomi c0097 to c0098, 17 minutes | 924 |
One cross-dimension arrow is reported as mass, not as a dimension-level arrow. A10 runs from Critical mass to Order without law, but it rests on 21 rooms, while the mass between the two dimensions is 1,417 transitions of other traffic. A12 runs from Critical mass to a form-pass element outside the dimensions. A05 lies inside Order without law, A08 and A09 inside Imprinting, and A11 inside Coordination without command.
What the arrows and masses show:
- Order without law draws in about twice what it sends (2,028 against 1,046 without doubles). Two arrows run into it (A04 and A10) and none out, so in the stage file's terms it is residue: the model ends there. That is drift toward the order between rooms.
- Imprinting is residue too: A07 runs into it and nothing runs out. Its masses say otherwise. It sends 5,577 transitions out and draws 3,631 in, with 1,121 into Maintenance and 1,630 into Order without law. "We did it" posts are answered by repair and border talk, because a celebrated work is still being kept. No mechanism is written for that yet (see the ungrounded relationships).
- Host framing is almost all internal (6,839 against 226 out, without doubles). The April Fools frame talks to itself. It carries no arrow, so at pass 1 it is a condition with nothing tested from it.
- Critical mass sends more than it draws (1,076 against 696 without doubles). Calls lead into the rest.
- Collective identity carries no arrow. Its masses are smaller and close to balanced (643 out, 565 in, without doubles).
Dynamics
- Loops. None is grounded. A within-room loop needs
one room's dated chain to run the whole cycle. The candidate is the room
that loses its spot, moves and rebuilds (K02 to P10 to P03 to P05, and
back to loss). day9 runs it once, from h48 to h53.1. The model has no
arrow from P10 to P03 that beats its base rate (finding F-002), so the
loop cannot close.
model/loops.jsonlis empty. - What returns a room to a state it had left: a loss. The room goes back to choosing a spot and cutting its design to what can survive. Across rooms it goes back to recruiting less often than chance (F-002), though day9, texas, scp and worldoftanks called members in again after a loss.
- What is irreversible across hour 73: placement stops. Calls to place, building, upkeep, machine hands and deals over pixels end with it. After hour 73 a room can celebrate, record and carry on (A07, A08 and A09 cross it in most rooms), or call for a later canvas. Its organizing for this canvas is over.
Ungrounded relationships
These relations have a count and no mechanism I have stated and
tested. They are correlations, in_model false by
definition, listed so that stage C5 can mark anything that rests on
them. Counts are from mem.py pairs and
c2_dim_mass.py.
- Completion ritual answered by repair work: 1,167 transitions in 274 rooms (fourth-order ledger).
- Completion ritual answered by border talk (Negotiated order): 805 transitions in 221 rooms.
- Coordination without command into Order without law: 3,128 transitions, the largest cross-dimension mass, and 2,154 back. Design and building may change borders, and deals may change designs. Neither is tested.
- Imprinting into Order without law: 1,630 transitions. Recounting after the close often names neighbours.
- Collective identity into Order without law: 1,169 transitions. National rooms may talk borders more because their membership is set before the canvas. No mechanism is written or tested.
Looked for and not found
Each of these was tested at pass 1 and not grounded. They are results (rule 8).
- Attribution as the hinge between restraint and contention. P06 to P07 holds in 0.452 of rooms against a null mean of 0.456. P06 to P09 holds in 0.194 against 0.408, reversed. Working out who changed the work does not, across rooms, come before sparing or before attack.
- A room under attack, then repair or a move. P09 to P05 holds in 0.444 against a null 95th percentile of 0.449. P09 to P10 holds in 0.561 against 0.610. The attack a room suffers is usually another room's act, so this link runs between rooms. It needs joint dated evidence from two rooms, which pass 1 did not assemble.
- Renewed calls or building after a move. Under "some TO after the first FROM", P10 to P01 holds in 0.722 against a null mean of 0.962, and P10 to P03 in 0.754 against 0.939. Both are below chance (F-002).
- Doubt, then calls. K02 to P01 holds in 0.175 against a null mean of 0.352, reversed. Calls come first and doubt follows them.
- Machine hands, then upkeep. P14 to P05 holds in 0.202 against 0.375, reversed. A06 replaced it.
- Emblem before template, as an order between rooms: at chance. A11 keeps only the transition.
- The play frame delaying the canvas work. ultrahardcore suggests it. It was not tested across rooms at pass 1.
The tiers the arrows run between, and what the model does not use
Nine of the 12 arrows join two elements tied to fourth-order themes (A01, A03, A04, A05, A06, A07, A08, A09 and A11). A02 runs from a pair of third-order themes (R01) to a fourth-order theme. A10 runs from a fourth-order theme to a pair of third-order themes (P10). A12 runs from a fourth-order theme to a form-pass finding (P15). Five elements carry no arrow at pass 1: P06, P09, K01, C01 and R02.
The next list gives the 82 of 197 third-order themes the model does
not use, directly or through their fourth-order theme, grouped by
fourth-order theme (out/_analysis/c2_unused_t3.py).
- T4-002 Boundary work (8): T3-015 routing canvas posts into megathreads; T3-063 removing canvas posts by rule; T3-075 objecting to the canvas flood; T3-140 moderators disowning the canvas work; T3-184 pausing the sub's usual events; T3-185 changing the sub's posting rules; T3-090 opening a canvas sub; T3-037 arguing the canvas's worth.
- T4-003 Sensemaking (3): T3-016 explaining what the canvas is; T3-018 decoding the finished picture's details; T3-052 remarking on neighbouring pictures.
- T4-004 Frame bridging (4): T3-086 carrying in the sub's quarrel; T3-179 arguing ideology from the canvas; T3-135 telling clashes as fandom lore; T3-031 playing the room's in-jokes.
- T4-010 Backstage decision-making (7): T3-014 moving planning into a chat; T3-107 keeping planning in the thread; T3-109 arguing which chat to use; T3-114 disputing the chat's authority; T3-116 hiding the plan from rivals; T3-132 spying in a rival's chat; T3-152 announcing what the chat decided.
- T4-014 Territoriality (5; its other two members are P10): T3-020 choosing a canvas spot; T3-039 yielding space when asked; T3-123 refusing to give up space; T3-012 granting a neighbour room; T3-045 arguing who was there first.
- T4-017 Reciprocity (7): T3-011 helping another room's work; T3-071 letting neighbours adopt the work; T3-084 asking other rooms for help; T3-115 turning away another room's request; T3-122 sending greetings to another room; T3-151 bartering help with neighbours; T3-072 thanking the room's allies.
- T4-018 Meta-organization (9): T3-153 meeting other rooms in chat; T3-035 asking a host for space; T3-094 disputing who approves a spot; T3-099 relying on a bigger neighbour; T3-162 vetting others' requests to build; T3-150 forming alliances between rooms; T3-013 gathering kindred rooms together; T3-019 tallying kindred rooms' works; T3-056 making joint marks with others.
- T4-021 Rivalry (5): T3-058 blaming attackers after the close; T3-050 trading taunts with rivals; T3-134 flooding rivals' threads with chants; T3-154 claiming victory over rival rooms; T3-155 saluting rivals after the fight.
- T4-022 Flagging the nation (12): T3-065 building the homeland's flag; T3-078 helping kin nations' flags; T3-079 joining flags with a heart; T3-085 weighing the room against nations; T3-113 drawing national emblems; T3-145 feeling national through the canvas; T3-165 debating friendship with historic enemies; T3-180 disputing national belonging; T3-081 casting fights as national history; T3-130 reading national politics in pixels; T3-142 making ethnic jokes about rivals; T3-166 arguing the nation's historical record.
- T4-023 Neo-tribes (6): T3-137 joining an outside group's build; T3-096 hailing the colour corners; T3-163 defecting from a rival faction; T3-171 spreading a faction's colour; T3-174 professing loyalty to a colour; T3-190 splitting a faction over doctrine.
- T4-024 Symbolic boundaries (5): T3-080 arguing over political symbols; T3-146 covering swastikas and hate symbols; T3-177 calling to draw swastikas; T3-182 shutting down bigotry in chat; T3-143 judging whether a joke offends.
- T4-025 Visibility returns (9): T3-051 pushing posts up the rankings; T3-053 spelling slogans with post titles; T3-110 placing a tile as payment; T3-044 recruiting canvas visitors; T3-129 making passers-by notice a demand; T3-189 fearing newcomers the mark draws; T3-196 drawing lapsed fans back; T3-127 seeking the creators' notice; T3-147 sharing the work's press coverage.
- Unpicked by any fourth-order theme (2): T3-017 carrying on ordinary sub talk; T3-133 recovering a hacked sub.
What was dropped, and which of the five it failed. The five are the concept and the contract's four things. Each fourth-order theme below was considered as an element and left out, because at pass 1 the model says nothing different about any of the five without it. The list says where each would bear if pass 2 brings it in.
- Boundary work: would bear on what brought organizing about when it came. A host that routes or removes canvas posts may delay the work. Untested; pass 2 tests it with the play frame.
- Sensemaking: would bear on becoming able to act. No arrow was formed.
- Frame bridging and Rivalry: would bear on what followed, through attack. No arrow was formed.
- Backstage decision-making: would bear on settling what to act on. A decision made in a chat reaches the record only as an announcement, so its order cannot be read from the threads.
- Reciprocity and Meta-organization: would bear on what followed. In bag rooms they cannot be told apart from border talk (P08). Pass 2 tests one element of exchange for them.
- Flagging the nation, Neo-tribes and Symbolic boundaries: would bear on becoming able to act, as membership carried in. Identity is not tested as a condition yet.
- Visibility returns: would bear on what is left behind, as attention gained. No arrow was formed.
Where the model should break, in its own terms
- Rooms whose canvas work is one thread (ultrahardcore): the spine collapses into one exchange. The model can still tell it (below).
- Rooms where a starter places alone and no one answers: R01 with no P01. The model expects no hands and has no element for a work one person keeps.
- Bag rooms (greenlattice t03), where many acts between rooms each carry a few concepts: P07, P08 and P09 cannot be told apart there.
- Late rooms that talk with neighbours before they have a work (A04's bound).
- Rooms whose answers the coders dropped: the enrolment and many replies are not in the record.
The three strongest arrows, read as artefacts
The three are chosen by the gap between the share and the null mean: A01 (0.254), A03 (0.233) and A08 (0.214). A07 (0.212) is next. For each, the argument is that the order comes from which turns the coders chose to code and how they labelled them.
- A01. A call is usually a submission title ("Help us draw X"), the first turn of its thread, and build reports are comments under it. If coders coded titles more often than comments, the call would come first because of what was coded. What separates the two: the null keeps each room's coded turns and their hours fixed and shuffles only the labels, so the choice of turns is held constant. In 53 rooms the coded build report comes before any coded call, so coders did code builds that had no call before them. In 70 rooms a build report replies to a call in the same thread (164 transitions), which is an act answering an act.
- A03. A coder labels a turn "upkeep" only once something stands, so repair would follow building by definition. It is partly constitutive and is kept as such. What separates it from a pure artefact: in 109 rooms upkeep or defence comes before any build report, on marks found already placed or attacked first. In 85 rooms an upkeep turn replies to a build report in the same thread (214 transitions).
- A08. Coders may have coded the closing post first and the screenshot replies after it. Screenshots are also posted after placement ends. What separates the two: in 108 rooms a record replies to a celebration in the same thread (259 transitions). In 64 rooms the record comes first, which coding order alone would not produce.
Two tests
Every element has a range. See the elements table.
The odd room: ultrahardcore. The model tells it as one way of running the same structure. The play frame (K01) filled the room from h7.7 to h40: 193 of its 212 coded items fall before h40, and only one of them, a question at h40 about what the room had done on the canvas, touches it. At h57.6 a starter asked for a design (R01). Within half an hour the thread had a proposal (P02), a template, a spot and an order: "Make it completely red first." [ultrahardcore/c0209] (A11). Building followed (P03), but there was no second call, no defence and no neighbour, so A03 and A04 never fired. At the close the room wrote "We almost did it!" [ultrahardcore/c0212] and recounted the unexpected end (P11, P12). The model tells it as a late, compressed spine under the play frame, cut by the clock before upkeep. What the model cannot say is why the frame held the room so long. That is the untested arrow from K01.