r/place A fruit fly for organization science

out/model.md

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The community returns used study-specific model settings. D2 native turns checked for the 14 shared communities used GPT-6.1 Sol, medium; resumed_with=5.6 is not their answer model. Models and lineage.

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The model, stage C2, pass 1 (C2a-01)

The model is typed: elements in model/elements.jsonl, arrows in model/arrows.jsonl, every change in model/history.jsonl, loops in model/loops.jsonl (empty at pass 1). Counts come from assignments_final.jsonl through out/_analysis/c2_arrow_evidence.py, whose outputs are out/_analysis/c2_arrow_evidence-p1a.txt, -p1b.txt and -p1c.txt. The apparatus tables are printed by out/_analysis/c2_model_tables.py, the dimension masses by c2_dim_mass.py, and the unused themes by c2_unused_t3.py.

The model relates presences and their order in time, never amounts. No coder wrote down a covariation between degrees, so no arrow is drawn between degrees.

What the model says, in prose

The contract asks the model for four things: how a scattered readership becomes able to act and how it settles what to act on; what sends a group back to that beginning; what brought organizing about when it came, and what followed; and what is left behind. Pass 1's model answers them with a spine, a fork between rooms, and a close.

How a scattered readership becomes able to act. A member proposes a mark or begins it (R01). Calls gather around the start [A02], and calls bring the hands that build [A01]. The cheapest answer to a call is a one-line enrolment, "On it.", which commits a member and asks for nothing back [A12]. Where a member placed first, the call follows the first build and recruits to a mark already begun (A01's bound).

How it settles what to act on. The room settles what its mark will show (P02). Inside a reply thread, a template settles a design under argument [A11]. Across rooms the first template is as likely to come before design talk as after it. The half-built mark itself tells the next placer what is missing (P03). Decided order, such as a leader, a vote or an oath, is rare (C01; finding F-006).

What brought organizing about when it came, and what followed. Organizing came when someone started and others answered [A02] [A01]. Upkeep followed: once a mark stands, keeping it becomes the work [A03]. Upkeep brings the room up against the neighbours whose pixels erode it, and the room talks with them [A04]. A settled border gives members a line they keep [A05], though most sparing is tacit and comes before any talk (A05's bound). Upkeep under attack outruns one pixel per interval, and members turn to scripts and spare accounts [A06] (finding F-005). Why organizing came when it did is the part the model holds least. The April Fools frame (K01) filled some rooms for a day or more before any canvas talk, and no arrow from it has been tested.

What sends a group back to the beginning. A loss. A room that judges it has too few hands stops fighting for its spot and moves [A10]. The move returns it to choosing a spot more than to recruiting. After a relocation, calls and build reports come less often than a shuffle of the room's own concepts would make them (finding F-002). Four of the twenty pass 1 story rooms, day9 among them, still called members in again after a loss, so this is a corpus rate and an open question (_questions/relocation-renewed-calls.md). day9 is the case of the move. Its border agreement broke at h48. Members chose to move at h49.7, made it official at h50.7, and finished the new work at h53.1 (finding F-003).

What is left behind. A finished mark is celebrated together [A07]. What is celebrated is recorded [A08]. What is recorded is carried on into banners, later canvases and lasting groups [A09] (finding F-004). Placement stops at hour 73. After it, a room can only celebrate, record and carry on.

Conditions. The April Fools frame (K01) and doubt about numbers (K02) are conditions. Membership carried in from outside the canvas (the nation, the fandom, the colour tribe) is in the structure as Collective identity and not in the model. Only K02 carries a grounded arrow at pass 1.

The elements

The next table lists the 20 elements with their kind, statement, tier, dimension and range.

id kind statement tier dimension range
P01 process Members call the room's own members, and kindred subs, to come and place for a work: to start it, build it, finish it or hold it. T4-005 D01 from one unanswered post asking who will help to a run of calls, cheering and a set time for placing together
P02 process The room settles what its mark will show of it: a member proposes a picture, the room argues its design, signs it or leaves it unsigned, or claims a mark others made. T4-006 D02 from a single member's unanswered proposal to a design argued over days and redone
P03 process Members build the mark and report its state, and the state of the canvas itself tells the next placer what is missing: progress, extension, personal pieces on a shared mark. T4-007 D02 from one report that the logo is half done to a mark grown into several pieces over two days
P04 process Members circulate a template or coordinates that fix the output pixel by pixel, ask for them, and hold strays to them. T4-008 D02 from one anchor coordinate to an official template enforced against versions
P05 process Members keep the placed work against erosion: they watch it, repair changed pixels, rally to defend it under attack, cover the night, harden its shape and put upkeep before growth. T4-013 D03 from one member fixing stray pixels to shifts, scripts and calls to defend over many hours
P06 process Members work out who changed their work and why: they trace placers and rooms, find friendly fire or their own mistake, blame officers, or disown placers acting in their name. T4-019 D03 from one question who keeps adding a line to a dossier on a rival's bots
P07 process Rooms spare their neighbours' work without a written agreement, rein in their own attackers, apologise for damage and appeal to attackers to stop. T4-015 D04 from one member refusing to cover a neighbour to a room restoring a work it had damaged
P08 process Rooms settle borders, truces and deals with neighbours by talk, through envoys, hold each other to them and dispute them. T4-016 D04 from a one-line border agreed in a thread to treaties across languages kept and broken over a day
P09 process Rooms attack others' work by the recurring moves the canvas affords: erasing, encroaching, converting a sign, raiding on a streamer's call, planting a script, griefing for fun. T4-020 D04 from one member's call to deface a rival to a coordinated raid
P10 process After the work is erased or overrun, the room weighs fighting for the spot against moving, and moves: a new spot, a smaller version, a fresh start. T3-022, T3-124 D04 from a lone member asking where to rebuild to a room relocating together within two hours
P11 process When a work is up, the room marks it: announces it, celebrates it, credits makers and helpers, reports members' own parts and says what working with strangers meant. T4-026 D07 from one 'We did it!' post to threads of credit and reflection at the close
P12 process The room records what happened to its work: screenshots and timelapses, reports of its fate, mourning, imagined art, atlas entries, the end marked. T4-027 D07 from one screenshot request to a full account of the week
P13 process At the close the room decides what of its temporary effort to keep: a later canvas, a new purpose for its canvas sub, the mark in its banner, ties with other rooms, the work remade elsewhere. T4-028 D07 from a wish to do better next year to a canvas-born collective carried into a lasting group
P14 process Members multiply their hands beyond the rate limit with scripts, bots and extra accounts, and the room governs these machine hands. T4-009 D02 from one member running spare accounts to a shared bot holding several rooms' works
P15 process A member answers a call or proposal in one line that joins, assents, reports a part done or thanks, and the line asks for nothing back. FP-01 none (form pass) from 'On it.' to 'Did my part.'
K01 condition The host sub is keyed as play for April Fools: fakes, takeovers and the one-day licence fill the room, and every claim in it, a call to the canvas included, may be a joke. T4-001 D06 from one fake post in an ordinary sub to a sub given over to parody for a day and a half
K02 condition The room judges that it has too few hands or too little room for the work it wants: doubt, a canvas judged too full, a work judged absent or outclassed. T4-012 D01 from one member saying there are not enough people to defenders told to give up
C01 claim Rooms aligned their placers mostly without deciding how they were organized: a decided element of order (a leader, a vote, an oath, a sanction, a division of the work) appears in few rooms, and the question who is in charge is almost never asked. T4-011, FP-08 D02 from rooms that say they wing it to canvas-born factions holding elections
R01 role The starter: a member who proposes the mark, maps it or begins placing it, and whom others then join. T3-033, T3-092 D02 from a member who only asks to a member who maps and places alone first
R02 role The envoy: a member who acts for a room toward another room, carrying a proposal between threads or chats. T3-194 D04 from a member calling themself a diplomat once to a standing representative in a shared council

Every element has a range. 17 of the 20 are named for what they do. Three (K01, K02, C01) are named for a state or a pattern. Fewer than a third are named for what they are about, so the model is not a lattice.

Why 20. The four things and the concept need 17 elements:

The other three (P06 attribution, P09 attack, R02 the envoy) carry the hinge from Attribution to Live and let live or Repertoire of contention, which the interview asked the model to test. That hinge was tested and not grounded (below). The three elements stay without arrows because the within-case rooms need them: ubc refused to retaliate against a neighbour, and day9 named a diplomat.

The arrows

The next table lists the 12 arrows in the model. For each it gives the kind, the strength, the rooms where the connection statement holds out of those carrying both elements, the permutation null (500 shuffles of labels within each room, seed 20261014), the holds on the early and late sides of the onset contrast, and whether the base rate is beaten.

id from -> to kind strength rooms: holds of both (share) null mean (p95) early / late holds base rate beaten
A01 P01 -> P03 order strong 137 of 190 (0.721) 0.467 (0.521) 35 of 47 / 3 of 5 true
A02 R01 -> P01 order fair 64 of 89 (0.719) 0.473 (0.539) 21 of 34 / 2 of 2 true
A03 P03 -> P05 order strong 182 of 291 (0.625) 0.392 (0.436) 43 of 69 / 6 of 8 true
A04 P05 -> P08 order fair 235 of 401 (0.586) 0.501 (0.539) 56 of 93 / 6 of 15 true
A05 P08 -> P07 order thin 106 of 158 (0.671) 0.600 (0.658) 25 of 40 / 4 of 4 true
A06 P05 -> P14 order strong 160 of 203 (0.788) 0.603 (0.655) 41 of 50 / 1 of 3 true
A07 P03 -> P11 order strong 182 of 282 (0.645) 0.433 (0.475) 38 of 65 / 5 of 9 true
A08 P11 -> P12 order strong 225 of 289 (0.779) 0.565 (0.609) 61 of 77 / 8 of 15 true
A09 P12 -> P13 order fair 113 of 145 (0.779) 0.563 (0.628) 38 of 47 / 1 of 3 true
A10 K02 -> P10 order thin 11 of 21 (0.524) 0.298 (0.429) 2 of 4 / 1 of 1 true
A11 P02 -> P04 transition thin 85 of 153 (0.556) 0.557 (0.621) 21 of 37 / 3 of 5 false
A12 P01 -> P15 transition thin never counted (form pass) - - null

The connection statement, written before every count: "in a room carrying both, the first concept of FROM comes before the first concept of TO". It is a statement of order. The null holds each room's coded turns and their hours fixed and shuffles which element each turn belongs to. A relation that holds nearly everywhere is not deleted by its base rate. A03 is in part constitutive, since a work must stand before it can be kept, and its 109 counterexamples show it is not only that. Every arrow is grounded codes-read: the concepts were read across rooms, and each arrow rests on quotes and on at least one transition in one thread.

Each arrow, with its mechanism, the observation that would show it failed, its bound, the sampled rooms that failed, and its instances:

Theorised arrows, and the model with and without them

No arrow rests on my reading alone. Two arrows do not rest on an order count that beats a shuffle, and they are listed apart as theorised:

Two more are counted and beat the null, but thinly: A05 (just above the null's 95th percentile) and A10 (21 rooms).

Without the two theorised arrows, the model loses two things. It can no longer say how a room settles a design under argument (A11), or why calls are cheap to answer (A12). Everything else stands.

Without the four thin arrows, the model is the spine A02, A01, A03, A04 and A06, and the close A07, A08 and A09. It still says how a room becomes able to act, what followed, and what it leaves behind. It loses two more things: why rooms with neighbours mostly do not fight (A05), and what sends a room back (A10). The second of the four things then has no answer in the model.

The model on the dimensions

The next table gives, per dimension, the mass of coded turns answering coded turns across the dimension's boundary. It comes from _views/transitions.tsv lifted through the placements by out/_analysis/c2_dim_mass.py. Rooms are beside each count. The last three columns drop every transition touching a double (a second-order theme placed on two third-order themes). Of 56,071 transitions with both ends placed, 31,636 touch no double.

dimension in (rooms) out (rooms) internal (rooms) in, no doubles out, no doubles internal, no doubles
D01 Critical mass 3569 (415) 5166 (387) 3100 (420) 696 (210) 1076 (179) 1647 (284)
D02 Coordination without command 7572 (557) 8192 (541) 8686 (574) 1510 (299) 1685 (296) 4362 (406)
D03 Maintenance 5588 (486) 4920 (459) 3717 (463) 1222 (242) 1243 (212) 1929 (283)
D04 Order without law 9611 (588) 6373 (522) 10512 (601) 2028 (348) 1046 (277) 4873 (450)
D05 Collective identity 3017 (295) 3389 (240) 2904 (287) 565 (162) 643 (125) 1496 (209)
D06 Host framing 1938 (234) 1309 (172) 9930 (397) 622 (135) 226 (69) 6839 (335)
D07 Imprinting 3631 (490) 5577 (479) 5763 (547) 672 (254) 1396 (272) 3175 (416)

The next table states six arrows at the dimension level. Each has one arrow beneath it, which supplies the strongest instance. The last column is the transition mass from the first dimension to the second, from the same script.

dimensions arrow beneath mechanism at the dimension level fails if strongest instance mass
Critical mass to Coordination without command A01 hands gathered by a call are spent on the mark the room is aligning on gathered hands produce no aligned work, or aligned work comes only before any gathering metroid c0001 to c0002, 1 minute 1,727
Coordination without command to Critical mass A02 a coordinating role, the starter, gives the call something to gather around calls come only before any start sips c0026 to c0027, 4 minutes 1,346
Coordination without command to Maintenance A03 aligned work, once standing, becomes something to keep upkeep comes only before any aligned work monsterhunter c0082 to c0083, 1 minute 1,684
Maintenance to Order without law A04 keeping a work brings the room into the order between rooms border talk comes only before any upkeep switzerland c0044 to c0045, 2 minutes 1,913
Maintenance to Coordination without command A06 upkeep under strain changes how the room multiplies its hands machine hands come only before any upkeep ubc c0089 to c0090, 2 minutes 1,432
Coordination without command to Imprinting A07 aligned work, once finished, is celebrated celebration comes only before any finished work suomi c0097 to c0098, 17 minutes 924

One cross-dimension arrow is reported as mass, not as a dimension-level arrow. A10 runs from Critical mass to Order without law, but it rests on 21 rooms, while the mass between the two dimensions is 1,417 transitions of other traffic. A12 runs from Critical mass to a form-pass element outside the dimensions. A05 lies inside Order without law, A08 and A09 inside Imprinting, and A11 inside Coordination without command.

What the arrows and masses show:

Dynamics

Ungrounded relationships

These relations have a count and no mechanism I have stated and tested. They are correlations, in_model false by definition, listed so that stage C5 can mark anything that rests on them. Counts are from mem.py pairs and c2_dim_mass.py.

Looked for and not found

Each of these was tested at pass 1 and not grounded. They are results (rule 8).

The tiers the arrows run between, and what the model does not use

Nine of the 12 arrows join two elements tied to fourth-order themes (A01, A03, A04, A05, A06, A07, A08, A09 and A11). A02 runs from a pair of third-order themes (R01) to a fourth-order theme. A10 runs from a fourth-order theme to a pair of third-order themes (P10). A12 runs from a fourth-order theme to a form-pass finding (P15). Five elements carry no arrow at pass 1: P06, P09, K01, C01 and R02.

The next list gives the 82 of 197 third-order themes the model does not use, directly or through their fourth-order theme, grouped by fourth-order theme (out/_analysis/c2_unused_t3.py).

What was dropped, and which of the five it failed. The five are the concept and the contract's four things. Each fourth-order theme below was considered as an element and left out, because at pass 1 the model says nothing different about any of the five without it. The list says where each would bear if pass 2 brings it in.

Where the model should break, in its own terms

The three strongest arrows, read as artefacts

The three are chosen by the gap between the share and the null mean: A01 (0.254), A03 (0.233) and A08 (0.214). A07 (0.212) is next. For each, the argument is that the order comes from which turns the coders chose to code and how they labelled them.

Two tests

Every element has a range. See the elements table.

The odd room: ultrahardcore. The model tells it as one way of running the same structure. The play frame (K01) filled the room from h7.7 to h40: 193 of its 212 coded items fall before h40, and only one of them, a question at h40 about what the room had done on the canvas, touches it. At h57.6 a starter asked for a design (R01). Within half an hour the thread had a proposal (P02), a template, a spot and an order: "Make it completely red first." [ultrahardcore/c0209] (A11). Building followed (P03), but there was no second call, no defence and no neighbour, so A03 and A04 never fired. At the close the room wrote "We almost did it!" [ultrahardcore/c0212] and recounted the unexpected end (P11, P12). The model tells it as a late, compressed spine under the play frame, cut by the clock before upkeep. What the model cannot say is why the frame held the room so long. That is the untested arrow from K01.